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Match prediction · Championship

Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers

Fri 6 Nov · 20:00 UK time · Pride Park Stadium

Our call 12
Either team to win

For this to come in, either Derby County or Bolton Wanderers must win.

Model confidence 75%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Derby County

W0 D1 L4
  1. ✕ 1–4
  2. ✓ 0–1
  3. ✓ 1–1
  4. ✕ 1–4
  5. ✓ 0–4

Our calls: 3 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. L 0–4 v Norwich City Norwich City Away +1.5 ✓
  2. L 1–4 at Millwall Derby County Away +1.5 ✕
  3. D 1–1 at Sheffield United Derby County Away +1.5 ✓
  4. L 0–1 v Stoke City Stoke City Away +1.5 ✓
  5. L 1–4 at Queens Park Rangers Derby County Away +1.5 ✕

Bolton Wanderers

W2 D1 L2
  1. ✕ 3–1
  2. ✕ 0–0
  3. ✓ 1–5
  4. ✓ 2–3
  5. ✓ 1–0

Our calls: 3 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. W 1–0 at Charlton Athletic Bolton Wanderers Away +1.5 ✓
  2. L 2–3 v Bristol City Bolton Wanderers Home +1.5 ✓
  3. L 1–5 v Middlesbrough Either team to win ✓
  4. D 0–0 at Southampton Southampton win ✕
  5. W 3–1 at Wolverhampton Wanderers Wolverhampton Wanderers win ✕

Last meetings

Derby County wins 3 Draws 1 Bolton Wanderers wins 1
  1. 16 Mar 2024 Derby County 1–0 Bolton Wanderers
  2. 2 Sep 2023 Bolton Wanderers 2–1 Derby County
  3. 21 Jan 2023 Derby County 2–1 Bolton Wanderers
  4. 27 Dec 2022 Bolton Wanderers 0–0 Derby County
  5. 13 Apr 2019 Derby County 4–0 Bolton Wanderers

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.