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Match prediction · Championship

Sheffield United vs Derby County

Sat 24 Oct · 12:30 UK time · Bramall Lane

Our call Handicap | Fulltime
Derby County Away +1.5

For this to come in, Derby County must not lose by 2 or more goals.

Model confidence 76%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Sheffield United

W2 D0 L3
  1. ✓ 0–1
  2. ✓ 1–2
  3. ✓ 3–0
  4. ✓ 2–3
  5. ✓ 1–0

Our calls: 5 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. W 1–0 at Bristol City Sheffield United Away +1.5 ✓
  2. L 2–3 at Portsmouth Portsmouth Home +1.5 ✓
  3. W 3–0 v Lincoln City Either team to win ✓
  4. L 1–2 at Stoke City Stoke City Home +1.5 ✓
  5. L 0–1 v Wolverhampton Wanderers Sheffield United Home +1.5 ✓

Derby County

W0 D2 L3
  1. ✓ 1–2
  2. ✕ 1–1
  3. ✓ 1–1
  4. ✕ 1–4
  5. ✓ 0–1

Our calls: 3 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. L 0–1 v Stoke City Stoke City Away +1.5 ✓
  2. L 1–4 at Queens Park Rangers Derby County Away +1.5 ✕
  3. D 1–1 v Wrexham Wrexham Away +1.5 ✓
  4. D 1–1 at Burnley Burnley win ✕
  5. L 1–2 v Birmingham City Birmingham City Away +1.5 ✓

Last meetings

Sheffield United wins 3 Draws 0 Derby County wins 2
  1. 2 May 2026 Derby County 1–2 Sheffield United
  2. 1 Nov 2025 Sheffield United 1–3 Derby County
  3. 1 Feb 2025 Derby County 0–1 Sheffield United
  4. 21 Sep 2024 Sheffield United 1–0 Derby County
  5. 15 Jan 2022 Derby County 2–0 Sheffield United

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.