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Match prediction · Championship

Derby County vs Birmingham City

Sat 12 Sep · 12:30 UK time · Pride Park Stadium

Our call Handicap | Fulltime
Birmingham City Away +1.5

For this to come in, Birmingham City must not lose by 2 or more goals.

Model confidence 83%

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Derby County

W1 D1 L3
  1. ✓ 2–2
  2. ✓ 0–3
  3. ✓ 2–0
  4. ✓ 0–3
  5. ✓ 0–1

Our calls: 5 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. L 0–1 v West Bromwich Albion West Bromwich Albion Away +1.5 ✓
  2. L 0–3 at West Ham United West Ham United win ✓
  3. W 2–0 at Portsmouth Derby County Away +1.5 ✓
  4. L 0–3 v Swansea City Swansea City Away +1.5 ✓
  5. D 2–2 v Cardiff City Cardiff City Away +1.5 ✓

Birmingham City

W1 D3 L1
  1. ✓ 2–2
  2. ✓ 2–1
  3. ✓ 1–1
  4. ✓ 2–2
  5. ✓ 1–2

Our calls: 5 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. L 1–2 at Norwich City Birmingham City Away +1.5 ✓
  2. D 2–2 v Wolverhampton Wanderers Birmingham City Home +1.5 ✓
  3. D 1–1 v Southampton Birmingham City Home +1.5 ✓
  4. W 2–1 at Wrexham Birmingham City Away +1.5 ✓
  5. D 2–2 v Bristol City Bristol City Away +1.5 ✓

Last meetings

Derby County wins 1 Draws 2 Birmingham City wins 2
  1. 21 Mar 2026 Derby County 1–0 Birmingham City
  2. 26 Dec 2025 Birmingham City 1–1 Derby County
  3. 30 Jan 2022 Derby County 2–2 Birmingham City
  4. 10 Sep 2021 Birmingham City 2–0 Derby County
  5. 24 Apr 2021 Derby County 1–2 Birmingham City

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.