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Match prediction · Championship

Burnley vs Derby County

Sat 19 Sep · 15:00 UK time · Turf Moor

Our call
Burnley win
Model confidence 56%

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Burnley

W0 D2 L3
  1. ✓ 1–4
  2. ✓ 1–1
  3. ✕ 1–2
  4. ✓ 1–1
  5. ✓ 1–3

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. L 1–3 at Swansea City Swansea City Home +1.5 ✓
  2. D 1–1 at Wrexham Wrexham Home +1.5 ✓
  3. L 1–2 v Bristol City Burnley win ✕
  4. D 1–1 v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough Away +1.5 ✓
  5. L 1–4 at Norwich City Norwich City Home +1.5 ✓

Derby County

W1 D0 L4
  1. ✓ 0–3
  2. ✓ 2–0
  3. ✓ 0–3
  4. ✓ 0–1
  5. ✓ 1–2

Our calls: 5 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. L 1–2 v Birmingham City Birmingham City Away +1.5 ✓
  2. L 0–1 v West Bromwich Albion West Bromwich Albion Away +1.5 ✓
  3. L 0–3 at West Ham United West Ham United win ✓
  4. W 2–0 at Portsmouth Derby County Away +1.5 ✓
  5. L 0–3 v Swansea City Swansea City Away +1.5 ✓

Last meetings

Burnley wins 2 Draws 3 Derby County wins 0
  1. 8 Apr 2025 Derby County 0–0 Burnley
  2. 10 Dec 2024 Burnley 0–0 Derby County
  3. 25 Jan 2016 Burnley 4–1 Derby County
  4. 21 Sep 2015 Derby County 0–0 Burnley
  5. 1 Mar 2014 Burnley 2–0 Derby County

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.