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Match prediction · Championship

Derby County vs Stoke City

Sat 17 Oct · 15:00 UK time · Pride Park Stadium

Our call Handicap | Fulltime
Stoke City Away +1.5

For this to come in, Stoke City must not lose by 2 or more goals.

Model confidence 79%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Derby County

W0 D2 L3
  1. ✓ 0–1
  2. ✓ 1–2
  3. ✕ 1–1
  4. ✓ 1–1
  5. ✕ 1–4

Our calls: 3 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. L 1–4 at Queens Park Rangers Derby County Away +1.5 ✕
  2. D 1–1 v Wrexham Wrexham Away +1.5 ✓
  3. D 1–1 at Burnley Burnley win ✕
  4. L 1–2 v Birmingham City Birmingham City Away +1.5 ✓
  5. L 0–1 v West Bromwich Albion West Bromwich Albion Away +1.5 ✓

Stoke City

W3 D1 L1
  1. ✓ 1–1
  2. ✓ 2–1
  3. ✓ 2–1
  4. ✓ 2–1
  5. ✓ 2–3

Our calls: 5 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. L 2–3 v Middlesbrough Stoke City Home +1.5 ✓
  2. W 2–1 at Bolton Wanderers Stoke City Away +1.5 ✓
  3. W 2–1 v Sheffield United Stoke City Home +1.5 ✓
  4. W 2–1 at Watford Stoke City Away +1.5 ✓
  5. D 1–1 at Cardiff City Stoke City Away +1.5 ✓

Last meetings

Derby County wins 2 Draws 1 Stoke City wins 2
  1. 6 Apr 2026 Derby County 2–0 Stoke City
  2. 9 Aug 2025 Stoke City 3–1 Derby County
  3. 3 May 2025 Derby County 0–0 Stoke City
  4. 2 Nov 2024 Stoke City 2–1 Derby County
  5. 30 Dec 2021 Stoke City 1–2 Derby County

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.