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Match prediction · Championship

Stoke City vs Middlesbrough

Tue 13 Oct · 20:00 UK time · bet365 Stadium

Our call Handicap | Fulltime
Stoke City Home +1.5

For this to come in, Stoke City must not lose by 2 or more goals.

Model confidence 78%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Stoke City

W4 D1 L0
  1. ✕ 4–0
  2. ✓ 1–1
  3. ✓ 2–1
  4. ✓ 2–1
  5. ✓ 2–1

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

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  1. W 2–1 at Bolton Wanderers Stoke City Away +1.5 ✓
  2. W 2–1 v Sheffield United Stoke City Home +1.5 ✓
  3. W 2–1 at Watford Stoke City Away +1.5 ✓
  4. D 1–1 at Cardiff City Stoke City Away +1.5 ✓
  5. W 4–0 v Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic Away +1.5 ✕

Middlesbrough

W3 D2 L0
  1. ✓ 1–0
  2. ✓ 4–3
  3. ✓ 2–2
  4. ✓ 2–2
  5. ✓ 1–0

Our calls: 5 of 5 came in

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  1. W 1–0 v Wolverhampton Wanderers Wolverhampton Wanderers Away +1.5 ✓
  2. D 2–2 at Birmingham City Birmingham City Home +1.5 ✓
  3. D 2–2 v Millwall Millwall Away +1.5 ✓
  4. W 4–3 v Norwich City Either team to win ✓
  5. W 1–0 at Queens Park Rangers Queens Park Rangers Home +1.5 ✓

Last meetings

Stoke City wins 1 Draws 1 Middlesbrough wins 3
  1. 21 Jan 2026 Stoke City 1–2 Middlesbrough
  2. 30 Sep 2025 Middlesbrough 0–0 Stoke City
  3. 25 Feb 2025 Stoke City 1–3 Middlesbrough
  4. 28 Sep 2024 Middlesbrough 2–0 Stoke City
  5. 2 Mar 2024 Stoke City 2–0 Middlesbrough

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.