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Match prediction · Championship

Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County

Wed 14 Oct · 19:45 UK time

Our call Handicap | Fulltime
Derby County Away +1.5

For this to come in, Derby County must not lose by 2 or more goals.

Model confidence 83%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Queens Park Rangers

W0 D4 L1
  1. ✓ 0–1
  2. ✓ 0–0
  3. ✓ 1–1
  4. ✓ 2–2
  5. ✕ 1–1

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. D 1–1 at West Ham United West Ham United win ✕
  2. D 2–2 v Preston North End Preston North End Away +1.5 ✓
  3. D 1–1 at West Bromwich Albion Queens Park Rangers Away +1.5 ✓
  4. D 0–0 at Charlton Athletic Queens Park Rangers Away +1.5 ✓
  5. L 0–1 v Middlesbrough Queens Park Rangers Home +1.5 ✓

Derby County

W0 D2 L3
  1. ✓ 0–3
  2. ✓ 0–1
  3. ✓ 1–2
  4. ✕ 1–1
  5. ✓ 1–1

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. D 1–1 v Wrexham Wrexham Away +1.5 ✓
  2. D 1–1 at Burnley Burnley win ✕
  3. L 1–2 v Birmingham City Birmingham City Away +1.5 ✓
  4. L 0–1 v West Bromwich Albion West Bromwich Albion Away +1.5 ✓
  5. L 0–3 at West Ham United West Ham United win ✓

Last meetings

Queens Park Rangers wins 2 Draws 0 Derby County wins 3
  1. 25 Apr 2026 Queens Park Rangers 2–3 Derby County
  2. 25 Oct 2025 Derby County 1–0 Queens Park Rangers
  3. 14 Feb 2025 Queens Park Rangers 4–0 Derby County
  4. 5 Oct 2024 Derby County 2–0 Queens Park Rangers
  5. 18 Apr 2022 Queens Park Rangers 1–0 Derby County

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.