BabaVanga
Build a parlay
Match prediction · Championship

Millwall vs Derby County

Sat 31 Oct · 15:00 UK time · The Den

Our call Handicap | Fulltime
Derby County Away +1.5

For this to come in, Derby County must not lose by 2 or more goals.

Model confidence 79%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Millwall

W1 D2 L2
  1. ✓ 2–2
  2. ✓ 1–0
  3. ✓ 0–1
  4. ✓ 2–2
  5. ✓ 1–2

Our calls: 5 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. L 1–2 at Portsmouth Portsmouth Home +1.5 ✓
  2. D 2–2 v Lincoln City Lincoln City Away +1.5 ✓
  3. L 0–1 v Swansea City Swansea City Away +1.5 ✓
  4. W 1–0 at Preston North End Preston North End Home +1.5 ✓
  5. D 2–2 v West Ham United Millwall Home +1.5 ✓

Derby County

W0 D3 L2
  1. ✕ 1–1
  2. ✓ 1–1
  3. ✕ 1–4
  4. ✓ 0–1
  5. ✓ 1–1

Our calls: 3 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. D 1–1 at Sheffield United Derby County Away +1.5 ✓
  2. L 0–1 v Stoke City Stoke City Away +1.5 ✓
  3. L 1–4 at Queens Park Rangers Derby County Away +1.5 ✕
  4. D 1–1 v Wrexham Wrexham Away +1.5 ✓
  5. D 1–1 at Burnley Burnley win ✕

Last meetings

Millwall wins 3 Draws 2 Derby County wins 0
  1. 10 Mar 2026 Millwall 1–0 Derby County
  2. 10 Dec 2025 Derby County 1–1 Millwall
  3. 22 Feb 2025 Derby County 0–1 Millwall
  4. 19 Oct 2024 Millwall 1–1 Derby County
  5. 23 Feb 2022 Derby County 1–2 Millwall

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.