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Match prediction · Championship

Millwall vs Swansea City

Tue 13 Oct · 19:45 UK time · The Den

Our call Handicap | Fulltime
Swansea City Away +1.5

For this to come in, Swansea City must not lose by 2 or more goals.

Model confidence 77%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Millwall

W2 D2 L1
  1. ✓ 4–0
  2. ✓ 1–3
  3. ✓ 2–2
  4. ✓ 2–2
  5. ✓ 1–0

Our calls: 5 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. W 1–0 at Preston North End Preston North End Home +1.5 ✓
  2. D 2–2 v West Ham United Millwall Home +1.5 ✓
  3. D 2–2 at Middlesbrough Millwall Away +1.5 ✓
  4. L 1–3 at Blackburn Rovers Either team to win ✓
  5. W 4–0 v Bolton Wanderers Millwall or draw ✓

Swansea City

W3 D1 L1
  1. ✓ 0–0
  2. ✓ 1–3
  3. ✓ 3–1
  4. ✓ 2–1
  5. ✓ 2–1

Our calls: 5 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. W 2–1 v Norwich City Norwich City Away +1.5 ✓
  2. W 2–1 at Lincoln City Swansea City Away +1.5 ✓
  3. W 3–1 v Burnley Swansea City Home +1.5 ✓
  4. L 1–3 at Southampton Southampton win ✓
  5. D 0–0 v Wrexham Wrexham Away +1.5 ✓

Last meetings

Millwall wins 4 Draws 1 Swansea City wins 0
  1. 4 Jan 2026 Millwall 2–1 Swansea City
  2. 27 Sep 2025 Swansea City 1–1 Millwall
  3. 26 Apr 2025 Millwall 1–0 Swansea City
  4. 26 Oct 2024 Swansea City 0–1 Millwall
  5. 4 May 2024 Swansea City 0–1 Millwall

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.