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Match prediction · Championship

Southampton vs Swansea City

Tue 8 Sep · 19:45 UK time · St Mary's Stadium

Our call
Southampton win
Model confidence 57%

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Southampton

W2 D2 L1
  1. ✓ 1–2
  2. ✓ 3–1
  3. ✓ 5–1
  4. ✓ 1–1
  5. ✓ 1–1

Our calls: 5 of 5 came in

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  1. D 1–1 at Lincoln City Lincoln City Home +1.5 ✓
  2. D 1–1 at Birmingham City Birmingham City Home +1.5 ✓
  3. W 5–1 v Millwall Either team to win ✓
  4. W 3–1 v Stoke City Southampton win ✓
  5. L 1–2 at Watford Either team to win ✓

Swansea City

W3 D2 L0
  1. ✓ 2–1
  2. ✓ 0–0
  3. ✓ 3–0
  4. ✕ 2–0
  5. ✓ 0–0

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

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  1. D 0–0 v Wrexham Wrexham Away +1.5 ✓
  2. W 2–0 v Watford Watford Away +1.5 ✕
  3. W 3–0 at Derby County Swansea City Away +1.5 ✓
  4. D 0–0 v Sheffield United Sheffield United Away +1.5 ✓
  5. W 2–1 at Stoke City Either team to win ✓

Last meetings

Southampton wins 4 Draws 1 Swansea City wins 0
  1. 18 Apr 2026 Swansea City 1–2 Southampton
  2. 18 Oct 2025 Southampton 0–0 Swansea City
  3. 20 Jan 2024 Swansea City 1–3 Southampton
  4. 26 Dec 2023 Southampton 5–0 Swansea City
  5. 8 May 2018 Swansea City 0–1 Southampton

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.