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Match prediction · Championship

Bolton Wanderers vs Middlesbrough

Fri 23 Oct · 20:00 UK time

Our call 12
Either team to win

For this to come in, either Bolton Wanderers or Middlesbrough must win.

Model confidence 76%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Bolton Wanderers

W3 D1 L1
  1. ✓ 1–0
  2. ✕ 4–3
  3. ✓ 1–2
  4. ✕ 3–1
  5. ✕ 0–0

Our calls: 2 of 5 came in

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  1. D 0–0 at Southampton Southampton win ✕
  2. W 3–1 at Wolverhampton Wanderers Wolverhampton Wanderers win ✕
  3. L 1–2 v Stoke City Stoke City Away +1.5 ✓
  4. W 4–3 at Norwich City Norwich City win ✕
  5. W 1–0 v Cardiff City Cardiff City Away +1.5 ✓

Middlesbrough

W2 D3 L0
  1. ✓ 2–2
  2. ✓ 2–2
  3. ✓ 1–0
  4. ✓ 3–2
  5. ✕ 2–2

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

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  1. D 2–2 v Cardiff City Middlesbrough win ✕
  2. W 3–2 at Stoke City Stoke City Home +1.5 ✓
  3. W 1–0 v Wolverhampton Wanderers Wolverhampton Wanderers Away +1.5 ✓
  4. D 2–2 at Birmingham City Birmingham City Home +1.5 ✓
  5. D 2–2 v Millwall Millwall Away +1.5 ✓

Last meetings

Bolton Wanderers wins 0 Draws 0 Middlesbrough wins 5
  1. 9 Apr 2019 Bolton Wanderers 0–2 Middlesbrough
  2. 19 Sep 2018 Middlesbrough 2–0 Bolton Wanderers
  3. 26 Dec 2017 Middlesbrough 2–0 Bolton Wanderers
  4. 9 Sep 2017 Bolton Wanderers 0–3 Middlesbrough
  5. 16 Apr 2016 Bolton Wanderers 1–2 Middlesbrough

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.