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Match prediction · Championship

Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers

Sat 17 Oct · 15:00 UK time · St Mary's Stadium

Our call
Southampton win
Model confidence 64%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Southampton

W4 D0 L1
  1. ✓ 3–1
  2. ✓ 4–1
  3. ✓ 1–2
  4. ✓ 1–0
  5. ✓ 1–0

Our calls: 5 of 5 came in

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  1. W 1–0 at Norwich City Norwich City Home +1.5 ✓
  2. W 1–0 v Portsmouth Southampton win ✓
  3. L 1–2 at Wrexham Wrexham Home +1.5 ✓
  4. W 4–1 v Bristol City Southampton win ✓
  5. W 3–1 v Swansea City Southampton win ✓

Bolton Wanderers

W3 D0 L2
  1. ✓ 2–3
  2. ✓ 1–0
  3. ✕ 4–3
  4. ✓ 1–2
  5. ✕ 3–1

Our calls: 3 of 5 came in

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  1. W 3–1 at Wolverhampton Wanderers Wolverhampton Wanderers win ✕
  2. L 1–2 v Stoke City Stoke City Away +1.5 ✓
  3. W 4–3 at Norwich City Norwich City win ✕
  4. W 1–0 v Cardiff City Cardiff City Away +1.5 ✓
  5. L 2–3 v West Ham United West Ham United win ✓

Last meetings

No earlier meeting in our records.

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.