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Match prediction · Championship

Southampton vs Bristol City

Sat 12 Sep · 15:00 UK time · St Mary's Stadium

Our call
Southampton win
Model confidence 55%

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Southampton

W3 D2 L0
  1. ✓ 3–1
  2. ✓ 5–1
  3. ✓ 1–1
  4. ✓ 1–1
  5. ✓ 3–1

Our calls: 5 of 5 came in

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  1. W 3–1 v Swansea City Southampton win ✓
  2. D 1–1 at Lincoln City Lincoln City Home +1.5 ✓
  3. D 1–1 at Birmingham City Birmingham City Home +1.5 ✓
  4. W 5–1 v Millwall Either team to win ✓
  5. W 3–1 v Stoke City Southampton win ✓

Bristol City

W3 D1 L1
  1. ✓ 0–2
  2. ✓ 2–2
  3. ✓ 2–1
  4. ✓ 3–1
  5. ✕ 2–1

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

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  1. W 2–1 at Burnley Burnley win ✕
  2. W 3–1 at Preston North End Bristol City Away +1.5 ✓
  3. W 2–1 v Portsmouth Portsmouth Away +1.5 ✓
  4. D 2–2 at Birmingham City Bristol City Away +1.5 ✓
  5. L 0–2 v Millwall Either team to win ✓

Last meetings

Southampton wins 1 Draws 1 Bristol City wins 3
  1. 21 Apr 2026 Southampton 2–2 Bristol City
  2. 21 Oct 2025 Bristol City 3–1 Southampton
  3. 13 Feb 2024 Bristol City 3–1 Southampton
  4. 29 Nov 2023 Southampton 1–0 Bristol City
  5. 30 Dec 2011 Southampton 0–1 Bristol City

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.