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Match prediction · Championship

Norwich City vs Southampton

Wed 14 Oct · 19:45 UK time · Carrow Road

Our call Handicap | Fulltime
Norwich City Home +1.5

For this to come in, Norwich City must not lose by 2 or more goals.

Model confidence 81%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Norwich City

W2 D0 L3
  1. ✓ 3–1
  2. ✓ 2–1
  3. ✓ 3–4
  4. ✕ 3–4
  5. ✓ 1–2

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

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  1. L 1–2 at Swansea City Norwich City Away +1.5 ✓
  2. L 3–4 v Bolton Wanderers Norwich City win ✕
  3. L 3–4 at Middlesbrough Either team to win ✓
  4. W 2–1 v Birmingham City Birmingham City Away +1.5 ✓
  5. W 3–1 at Sheffield United Norwich City Away +1.5 ✓

Southampton

W3 D1 L1
  1. ✓ 1–1
  2. ✓ 3–1
  3. ✓ 4–1
  4. ✓ 1–2
  5. ✓ 1–0

Our calls: 5 of 5 came in

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  1. W 1–0 v Portsmouth Southampton win ✓
  2. L 1–2 at Wrexham Wrexham Home +1.5 ✓
  3. W 4–1 v Bristol City Southampton win ✓
  4. W 3–1 v Swansea City Southampton win ✓
  5. D 1–1 at Lincoln City Lincoln City Home +1.5 ✓

Last meetings

Norwich City wins 1 Draws 2 Southampton wins 2
  1. 18 Mar 2026 Southampton 1–0 Norwich City
  2. 13 Dec 2025 Norwich City 2–1 Southampton
  3. 1 Jan 2024 Norwich City 1–1 Southampton
  4. 12 Aug 2023 Southampton 4–4 Norwich City
  5. 25 Feb 2022 Southampton 2–0 Norwich City

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.