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Match prediction · Championship

Southampton vs Portsmouth

Sun 11 Oct · 12:00 UK time · St Mary's Stadium

Our call
Southampton win
Model confidence 61%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Southampton

W2 D2 L1
  1. ✓ 1–1
  2. ✓ 1–1
  3. ✓ 3–1
  4. ✓ 4–1
  5. ✓ 1–2

Our calls: 5 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. L 1–2 at Wrexham Wrexham Home +1.5 ✓
  2. W 4–1 v Bristol City Southampton win ✓
  3. W 3–1 v Swansea City Southampton win ✓
  4. D 1–1 at Lincoln City Lincoln City Home +1.5 ✓
  5. D 1–1 at Birmingham City Birmingham City Home +1.5 ✓

Portsmouth

W1 D2 L2
  1. ✓ 1–2
  2. ✓ 0–2
  3. ✕ 2–0
  4. ✓ 0–0
  5. ✓ 2–2

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. D 2–2 v Blackburn Rovers Blackburn Rovers Away +1.5 ✓
  2. D 0–0 at Charlton Athletic Portsmouth Away +1.5 ✓
  3. W 2–0 v Cardiff City Cardiff City Away +1.5 ✕
  4. L 0–2 v Derby County Derby County Away +1.5 ✓
  5. L 1–2 at Bristol City Portsmouth Away +1.5 ✓

Last meetings

Southampton wins 0 Draws 4 Portsmouth wins 0
  1. 25 Jan 2026 Portsmouth 1–1 Southampton
  2. 14 Sep 2025 Southampton 0–0 Portsmouth
  3. 7 Apr 2012 Southampton 2–2 Portsmouth
  4. 18 Dec 2011 Portsmouth 1–1 Southampton

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.