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Match prediction · Championship

Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City

Sat 17 Oct · 12:30 UK time · Riverside Stadium

Our call
Middlesbrough win
Model confidence 57%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Middlesbrough

W3 D2 L0
  1. ✓ 4–3
  2. ✓ 2–2
  3. ✓ 2–2
  4. ✓ 1–0
  5. ✓ 3–2

Our calls: 5 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. W 3–2 at Stoke City Stoke City Home +1.5 ✓
  2. W 1–0 v Wolverhampton Wanderers Wolverhampton Wanderers Away +1.5 ✓
  3. D 2–2 at Birmingham City Birmingham City Home +1.5 ✓
  4. D 2–2 v Millwall Millwall Away +1.5 ✓
  5. W 4–3 v Norwich City Either team to win ✓

Cardiff City

W2 D1 L2
  1. ✓ 1–1
  2. ✓ 0–1
  3. ✓ 3–1
  4. ✓ 1–2
  5. ✕ 5–1

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

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  1. W 5–1 v Watford Watford Away +1.5 ✕
  2. L 1–2 at Blackburn Rovers Cardiff City Away +1.5 ✓
  3. W 3–1 v Charlton Athletic Either team to win ✓
  4. L 0–1 at Bolton Wanderers Cardiff City Away +1.5 ✓
  5. D 1–1 v Stoke City Stoke City Away +1.5 ✓

Last meetings

Middlesbrough wins 4 Draws 1 Cardiff City wins 0
  1. 4 Jan 2025 Middlesbrough 1–1 Cardiff City
  2. 31 Aug 2024 Cardiff City 0–2 Middlesbrough
  3. 27 Apr 2024 Cardiff City 1–4 Middlesbrough
  4. 3 Oct 2023 Middlesbrough 2–0 Cardiff City
  5. 11 Feb 2023 Cardiff City 1–3 Middlesbrough

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.