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Match prediction · Championship

Derby County vs Norwich City

Tue 3 Nov · 19:45 UK time · Pride Park Stadium

Our call Handicap | Fulltime
Norwich City Away +1.5

For this to come in, Norwich City must not lose by 2 or more goals.

Model confidence 82%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Derby County

W0 D2 L3
  1. ✓ 1–1
  2. ✕ 1–4
  3. ✓ 0–1
  4. ✓ 1–1
  5. ✕ 1–4

Our calls: 3 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. L 1–4 at Millwall Derby County Away +1.5 ✕
  2. D 1–1 at Sheffield United Derby County Away +1.5 ✓
  3. L 0–1 v Stoke City Stoke City Away +1.5 ✓
  4. L 1–4 at Queens Park Rangers Derby County Away +1.5 ✕
  5. D 1–1 v Wrexham Wrexham Away +1.5 ✓

Norwich City

W2 D0 L3
  1. ✓ 1–2
  2. ✓ 0–1
  3. ✕ 0–1
  4. ✕ 3–1
  5. ✓ 3–2

Our calls: 3 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. W 3–2 v Watford Either team to win ✓
  2. W 3–1 at Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic Home +1.5 ✕
  3. L 0–1 v Portsmouth Norwich City or draw ✕
  4. L 0–1 v Southampton Norwich City Home +1.5 ✓
  5. L 1–2 at Swansea City Norwich City Away +1.5 ✓

Last meetings

Derby County wins 1 Draws 1 Norwich City wins 3
  1. 21 Apr 2026 Norwich City 2–1 Derby County
  2. 21 Oct 2025 Derby County 1–0 Norwich City
  3. 8 Feb 2025 Norwich City 1–1 Derby County
  4. 28 Sep 2024 Derby County 2–3 Norwich City
  5. 10 Apr 2021 Derby County 0–1 Norwich City

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.