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Match prediction · Premier League

Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Sat 31 Oct · 15:00 UK time · Etihad Stadium

Our call
Manchester City win
Model confidence 64%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Manchester City

W4 D0 L1
  1. ✓ 1–0
  2. ✓ 5–3
  3. ✕ 3–0
  4. ✓ 3–2
  5. ✓ 1–2

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. L 1–2 at Aston Villa Either team to win ✓
  2. W 3–2 v Ipswich Town Manchester City win ✓
  3. W 3–0 at Liverpool Liverpool Home +1.5 ✕
  4. W 5–3 v Sunderland Manchester City win ✓
  5. W 1–0 at Manchester United Either team to win ✓

Brighton & Hove Albion

W4 D0 L1
  1. ✓ 5–0
  2. ✕ 3–0
  3. ✓ 2–0
  4. ✓ 5–0
  5. ✓ 0–2

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. L 0–2 at Liverpool Either team to win ✓
  2. W 5–0 v Crystal Palace Either team to win ✓
  3. W 2–0 at Sunderland Brighton & Hove Albion or draw ✓
  4. W 3–0 v Arsenal Arsenal or draw ✕
  5. W 5–0 at Coventry City Either team to win ✓

Last meetings

Manchester City wins 1 Draws 2 Brighton & Hove Albion wins 2
  1. 7 Jan 2026 Manchester City 1–1 Brighton & Hove Albion
  2. 31 Aug 2025 Brighton & Hove Albion 2–1 Manchester City
  3. 15 Mar 2025 Manchester City 2–2 Brighton & Hove Albion
  4. 9 Nov 2024 Brighton & Hove Albion 2–1 Manchester City
  5. 25 Apr 2024 Brighton & Hove Albion 0–4 Manchester City

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.