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Match prediction · Premier League

Aston Villa vs Manchester City

Sat 24 Oct · 12:30 UK time · Villa Park

Our call 12
Either team to win

For this to come in, either Aston Villa or Manchester City must win.

Model confidence 77%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Aston Villa

W2 D2 L1
  1. ✕ 0–0
  2. ✓ 1–2
  3. ✓ 3–2
  4. ✕ 2–2
  5. ✓ 1–0

Our calls: 3 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. W 1–0 at Newcastle United Either team to win ✓
  2. D 2–2 v Brentford Either team to win ✕
  3. W 3–2 at Tottenham Hotspur Aston Villa Away +1.5 ✓
  4. L 1–2 v Nottingham Forest Either team to win ✓
  5. D 0–0 at Hull City Aston Villa win ✕

Manchester City

W5 D0 L0
  1. ✓ 1–0
  2. ✓ 1–0
  3. ✓ 5–3
  4. ✕ 3–0
  5. ✓ 3–2

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. W 3–2 v Ipswich Town Manchester City win ✓
  2. W 3–0 at Liverpool Liverpool Home +1.5 ✕
  3. W 5–3 v Sunderland Manchester City win ✓
  4. W 1–0 at Manchester United Either team to win ✓
  5. W 1–0 v Coventry City Manchester City win ✓

Last meetings

Aston Villa wins 3 Draws 0 Manchester City wins 2
  1. 24 May 2026 Manchester City 1–2 Aston Villa
  2. 26 Oct 2025 Aston Villa 1–0 Manchester City
  3. 22 Apr 2025 Manchester City 2–1 Aston Villa
  4. 21 Dec 2024 Aston Villa 2–1 Manchester City
  5. 3 Apr 2024 Manchester City 4–1 Aston Villa

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.