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Match prediction · Premier League

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa

Sat 17 Oct · 17:30 UK time · St James' Park

Our call 12
Either team to win

For this to come in, either Newcastle United or Aston Villa must win.

Model confidence 77%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Newcastle United

W2 D1 L2
  1. ✓ 2–0
  2. ✕ 2–2
  3. ✓ 1–4
  4. ✓ 2–1
  5. ✓ 1–4

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. L 1–4 at Coventry City Either team to win ✓
  2. W 2–1 v Hull City Newcastle United win ✓
  3. L 1–4 at Leeds United Leeds United Home +1.5 ✓
  4. D 2–2 v Bournemouth Either team to win ✕
  5. W 2–0 at Tottenham Hotspur Newcastle United Away +1.5 ✓

Aston Villa

W1 D2 L2
  1. ✓ 0–1
  2. ✕ 0–0
  3. ✓ 1–2
  4. ✓ 3–2
  5. ✕ 2–2

Our calls: 3 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. D 2–2 v Brentford Either team to win ✕
  2. W 3–2 at Tottenham Hotspur Aston Villa Away +1.5 ✓
  3. L 1–2 v Nottingham Forest Either team to win ✓
  4. D 0–0 at Hull City Aston Villa win ✕
  5. L 0–1 v Arsenal Arsenal or draw ✓

Last meetings

Newcastle United wins 2 Draws 1 Aston Villa wins 2
  1. 25 Jan 2026 Newcastle United 0–2 Aston Villa
  2. 16 Aug 2025 Aston Villa 0–0 Newcastle United
  3. 19 Apr 2025 Aston Villa 4–1 Newcastle United
  4. 26 Dec 2024 Newcastle United 3–0 Aston Villa
  5. 30 Jan 2024 Aston Villa 1–3 Newcastle United

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.