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Match prediction · Premier League

Liverpool vs Manchester City

Sun 11 Oct · 16:30 UK time · Anfield

Our call Handicap | Fulltime
Liverpool Home +1.5

For this to come in, Liverpool must not lose by 2 or more goals.

Model confidence 78%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Liverpool

W2 D3 L0
  1. ✓ 2–2
  2. ✕ 2–2
  3. ✓ 2–0
  4. ✕ 0–0
  5. ✓ 1–0

Our calls: 3 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. W 1–0 at Bournemouth Either team to win ✓
  2. D 0–0 v Fulham Liverpool win ✕
  3. W 2–0 at Ipswich Town Liverpool win ✓
  4. D 2–2 v Nottingham Forest Liverpool win ✕
  5. D 2–2 at Newcastle United Newcastle United Home +1.5 ✓

Manchester City

W5 D0 L0
  1. ✓ 2–1
  2. ✓ 4–1
  3. ✓ 1–0
  4. ✓ 1–0
  5. ✓ 5–3

Our calls: 5 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. W 5–3 v Sunderland Manchester City win ✓
  2. W 1–0 at Manchester United Either team to win ✓
  3. W 1–0 v Coventry City Manchester City win ✓
  4. W 4–1 at Crystal Palace Manchester City win ✓
  5. W 2–1 v Bournemouth Manchester City win ✓

Last meetings

Liverpool wins 2 Draws 1 Manchester City wins 2
  1. 8 Feb 2026 Liverpool 1–2 Manchester City
  2. 9 Nov 2025 Manchester City 3–0 Liverpool
  3. 23 Feb 2025 Manchester City 0–2 Liverpool
  4. 1 Dec 2024 Liverpool 2–0 Manchester City
  5. 10 Mar 2024 Liverpool 1–1 Manchester City

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.