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Match prediction · League Two

Crewe Alexandra vs Newport County

Sat 14 Nov · 15:00 UK time

Our call 1X
Crewe Alexandra or draw

For this to come in, Crewe Alexandra must win or draw.

Model confidence 77%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Crewe Alexandra

W2 D1 L2
  1. ✓ 1–0
  2. ✓ 3–2
  3. ✕ 0–2
  4. ✓ 1–5
  5. ✓ 1–1

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. D 1–1 v Barnet Crewe Alexandra Home +1.5 ✓
  2. L 1–5 at Chesterfield Chesterfield or draw ✓
  3. L 0–2 at Exeter City Crewe Alexandra Away +1.5 ✕
  4. W 3–2 v Rochdale Crewe Alexandra Home +1.5 ✓
  5. W 1–0 at Swindon Town Either team to win ✓

Newport County

W2 D2 L1
  1. ✓ 1–0
  2. ✕ 1–1
  3. ✕ 2–2
  4. ✓ 0–1
  5. ✓ 4–1

Our calls: 3 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. W 4–1 v Chesterfield Either team to win ✓
  2. L 0–1 at Cheltenham Town Newport County Away +1.5 ✓
  3. D 2–2 at Rotherham United Rotherham United win ✕
  4. D 1–1 v York City York City win ✕
  5. W 1–0 v Colchester United Newport County Home +1.5 ✓

Last meetings

Crewe Alexandra wins 0 Draws 2 Newport County wins 3
  1. 29 Dec 2025 Newport County 2–0 Crewe Alexandra
  2. 10 Dec 2025 Crewe Alexandra 2–2 Newport County
  3. 8 Feb 2025 Crewe Alexandra 0–3 Newport County
  4. 28 Sep 2024 Newport County 2–1 Crewe Alexandra
  5. 29 Dec 2023 Newport County 1–1 Crewe Alexandra

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.