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Match prediction · League Two

Newport County vs York City

Sat 17 Oct · 15:00 UK time · Rodney Parade

Our call
York City win
Model confidence 60%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Newport County

W2 D3 L0
  1. ✓ 1–1
  2. ✓ 0–0
  3. ✓ 2–1
  4. ✓ 0–0
  5. ✓ 1–0

Our calls: 5 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. W 1–0 v Colchester United Newport County Home +1.5 ✓
  2. D 0–0 at Gillingham Newport County Away +1.5 ✓
  3. W 2–1 v Grimsby Town Newport County Home +1.5 ✓
  4. D 0–0 at Accrington Stanley Newport County Away +1.5 ✓
  5. D 1–1 v Fleetwood Town Newport County Home +1.5 ✓

York City

W2 D2 L1
  1. ✕ 1–1
  2. ✓ 4–0
  3. ✓ 0–2
  4. ✓ 3–0
  5. ✕ 1–1

Our calls: 3 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. D 1–1 v Northampton Town York City win ✕
  2. W 3–0 v Gillingham York City win ✓
  3. L 0–2 at Chesterfield Chesterfield Home +1.5 ✓
  4. W 4–0 v Swindon Town York City win ✓
  5. D 1–1 at Crewe Alexandra Either team to win ✕

Last meetings

Newport County wins 3 Draws 0 York City wins 2
  1. 16 Jan 2016 York City 0–1 Newport County
  2. 5 Sep 2015 Newport County 0–3 York City
  3. 25 Apr 2015 York City 0–2 Newport County
  4. 11 Oct 2014 Newport County 3–1 York City
  5. 26 Apr 2014 York City 1–0 Newport County

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.