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Match prediction · League Two

Newport County vs Colchester United

Sat 10 Oct · 15:00 UK time · Rodney Parade

Our call Handicap | Fulltime
Newport County Home +1.5

For this to come in, Newport County must not lose by 2 or more goals.

Model confidence 79%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Newport County

W1 D3 L1
  1. ✓ 0–1
  2. ✓ 1–1
  3. ✓ 0–0
  4. ✓ 2–1
  5. ✓ 0–0

Our calls: 5 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. D 0–0 at Gillingham Newport County Away +1.5 ✓
  2. W 2–1 v Grimsby Town Newport County Home +1.5 ✓
  3. D 0–0 at Accrington Stanley Newport County Away +1.5 ✓
  4. D 1–1 v Fleetwood Town Newport County Home +1.5 ✓
  5. L 0–1 at Northampton Town Northampton Town or draw ✓

Colchester United

W0 D3 L2
  1. ✕ 0–2
  2. ✕ 1–3
  3. ✓ 1–1
  4. ✓ 1–1
  5. ✓ 2–2

Our calls: 3 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. D 2–2 at Shrewsbury Town Shrewsbury Town Home +1.5 ✓
  2. D 1–1 v Cheltenham Town Colchester United or draw ✓
  3. D 1–1 v Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra Away +1.5 ✓
  4. L 1–3 at Swindon Town Colchester United Away +1.5 ✕
  5. L 0–2 at Bristol Rovers Colchester United Away +1.5 ✕

Last meetings

Newport County wins 0 Draws 1 Colchester United wins 4
  1. 7 Mar 2026 Newport County 1–2 Colchester United
  2. 20 Dec 2025 Colchester United 4–1 Newport County
  3. 12 Apr 2025 Newport County 0–2 Colchester United
  4. 14 Dec 2024 Colchester United 0–0 Newport County
  5. 29 Mar 2024 Colchester United 2–1 Newport County

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.