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Match prediction · League Two

Exeter City vs Crewe Alexandra

Tue 20 Oct · 19:45 UK time · St James Park

Our call Handicap | Fulltime
Crewe Alexandra Away +1.5

For this to come in, Crewe Alexandra must not lose by 2 or more goals.

Model confidence 77%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Exeter City

W2 D2 L1
  1. ✓ 0–0
  2. ✓ 0–1
  3. ✓ 1–0
  4. ✓ 1–0
  5. ✓ 0–0

Our calls: 5 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. D 0–0 at Colchester United Exeter City Away +1.5 ✓
  2. W 1–0 at Shrewsbury Town Shrewsbury Town Home +1.5 ✓
  3. W 1–0 v Rotherham United Rotherham United Away +1.5 ✓
  4. L 0–1 at Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers Home +1.5 ✓
  5. D 0–0 v Tranmere Rovers Exeter City or draw ✓

Crewe Alexandra

W3 D2 L0
  1. ✓ 1–1
  2. ✓ 1–1
  3. ✕ 3–1
  4. ✓ 1–0
  5. ✓ 3–2

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. W 3–2 v Rochdale Crewe Alexandra Home +1.5 ✓
  2. W 1–0 at Swindon Town Either team to win ✓
  3. W 3–1 v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers Away +1.5 ✕
  4. D 1–1 at Rotherham United Crewe Alexandra Away +1.5 ✓
  5. D 1–1 v Shrewsbury Town Shrewsbury Town Away +1.5 ✓

Last meetings

Exeter City wins 3 Draws 2 Crewe Alexandra wins 0
  1. 3 Mar 2020 Exeter City 1–1 Crewe Alexandra
  2. 5 Oct 2019 Crewe Alexandra 1–1 Exeter City
  3. 23 Feb 2019 Crewe Alexandra 1–2 Exeter City
  4. 15 Dec 2018 Exeter City 1–0 Crewe Alexandra
  5. 20 Feb 2018 Crewe Alexandra 1–2 Exeter City

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.