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Match prediction · League Two

Colchester United vs Exeter City

Sat 17 Oct · 15:00 UK time

Our call Handicap | Fulltime
Exeter City Away +1.5

For this to come in, Exeter City must not lose by 2 or more goals.

Model confidence 83%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Colchester United

W0 D3 L2
  1. ✕ 1–3
  2. ✓ 1–1
  3. ✓ 1–1
  4. ✓ 2–2
  5. ✓ 0–1

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

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  1. L 0–1 at Newport County Newport County Home +1.5 ✓
  2. D 2–2 at Shrewsbury Town Shrewsbury Town Home +1.5 ✓
  3. D 1–1 v Cheltenham Town Colchester United or draw ✓
  4. D 1–1 v Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra Away +1.5 ✓
  5. L 1–3 at Swindon Town Colchester United Away +1.5 ✕

Exeter City

W2 D1 L2
  1. ✓ 0–1
  2. ✓ 0–0
  3. ✓ 0–1
  4. ✓ 1–0
  5. ✓ 1–0

Our calls: 5 of 5 came in

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  1. W 1–0 at Shrewsbury Town Shrewsbury Town Home +1.5 ✓
  2. W 1–0 v Rotherham United Rotherham United Away +1.5 ✓
  3. L 0–1 at Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers Home +1.5 ✓
  4. D 0–0 v Tranmere Rovers Exeter City or draw ✓
  5. L 0–1 at Port Vale Exeter City Away +1.5 ✓

Last meetings

Colchester United wins 1 Draws 1 Exeter City wins 3
  1. 15 Apr 2022 Exeter City 2–0 Colchester United
  2. 23 Nov 2021 Colchester United 3–1 Exeter City
  3. 23 Feb 2021 Colchester United 1–2 Exeter City
  4. 24 Nov 2020 Exeter City 6–1 Colchester United
  5. 25 Jan 2020 Exeter City 0–0 Colchester United

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.