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Match prediction · League Two

Exeter City vs Cheltenham Town

Sat 14 Nov · 12:30 UK time · St James Park

Our call
Exeter City win
Model confidence 55%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Exeter City

W3 D1 L1
  1. ✓ 1–0
  2. ✓ 0–0
  3. ✕ 2–0
  4. ✓ 2–1
  5. ✓ 1–2

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. L 1–2 at Salford City Exeter City Away +1.5 ✓
  2. W 2–1 v Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town Away +1.5 ✓
  3. W 2–0 v Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra Away +1.5 ✕
  4. D 0–0 at Colchester United Exeter City Away +1.5 ✓
  5. W 1–0 at Shrewsbury Town Shrewsbury Town Home +1.5 ✓

Cheltenham Town

W2 D0 L3
  1. ✕ 0–2
  2. ✓ 1–4
  3. ✓ 4–2
  4. ✓ 1–0
  5. ✕ 1–3

Our calls: 3 of 5 came in

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  1. L 1–3 at Tranmere Rovers Cheltenham Town Away +1.5 ✕
  2. W 1–0 v Newport County Newport County Away +1.5 ✓
  3. W 4–2 v Fleetwood Town Cheltenham Town Home +1.5 ✓
  4. L 1–4 at Oldham Athletic Oldham Athletic or draw ✓
  5. L 0–2 v Salford City Cheltenham Town Home +1.5 ✕

Last meetings

Exeter City wins 2 Draws 0 Cheltenham Town wins 3
  1. 1 Apr 2024 Cheltenham Town 1–2 Exeter City
  2. 16 Sep 2023 Exeter City 1–0 Cheltenham Town
  3. 18 Mar 2023 Cheltenham Town 3–1 Exeter City
  4. 20 Aug 2022 Exeter City 0–1 Cheltenham Town
  5. 13 Mar 2021 Exeter City 0–1 Cheltenham Town

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.