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Match prediction · Premier League

Chelsea vs Manchester United

Sat 31 Oct · 12:30 UK time · Stamford Bridge

Our call Handicap | Fulltime
Manchester United Away +1.5

For this to come in, Manchester United must not lose by 2 or more goals.

Model confidence 77%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Chelsea

W2 D1 L2
  1. ✕ 2–2
  2. ✕ 0–3
  3. ✓ 5–1
  4. ✕ 2–0
  5. ✓ 0–2

Our calls: 2 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. L 0–2 v Tottenham Hotspur Either team to win ✓
  2. W 2–0 at Everton Everton Home +1.5 ✕
  3. W 5–1 v Bournemouth Either team to win ✓
  4. L 0–3 at Brentford Chelsea Away +1.5 ✕
  5. D 2–2 v Hull City Chelsea win ✕

Manchester United

W0 D3 L2
  1. ✓ 0–1
  2. ✓ 1–1
  3. ✕ 1–1
  4. ✓ 1–1
  5. ✓ 0–3

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. L 0–3 v Bournemouth Either team to win ✓
  2. D 1–1 at Leeds United Leeds United Home +1.5 ✓
  3. D 1–1 v Tottenham Hotspur Either team to win ✕
  4. D 1–1 at Fulham Fulham Home +1.5 ✓
  5. L 0–1 v Manchester City Either team to win ✓

Last meetings

Chelsea wins 2 Draws 1 Manchester United wins 2
  1. 18 Apr 2026 Chelsea 0–1 Manchester United
  2. 20 Sep 2025 Manchester United 2–1 Chelsea
  3. 16 May 2025 Chelsea 1–0 Manchester United
  4. 3 Nov 2024 Manchester United 1–1 Chelsea
  5. 4 Apr 2024 Chelsea 4–3 Manchester United

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.