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Match prediction · Premier League

Everton vs Chelsea

Sat 17 Oct · 12:30 UK time · Hill Dickinson Stadium

Our call Handicap | Fulltime
Everton Home +1.5

For this to come in, Everton must not lose by 2 or more goals.

Model confidence 82%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Everton

W1 D4 L0
  1. ✓ 1–1
  2. ✓ 2–2
  3. ✓ 0–0
  4. ✓ 1–0
  5. ✕ 2–2

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

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  1. D 2–2 at Hull City Everton win ✕
  2. W 1–0 v Ipswich Town Everton win ✓
  3. D 0–0 at Tottenham Hotspur Everton Away +1.5 ✓
  4. D 2–2 v Manchester United Everton Home +1.5 ✓
  5. D 1–1 at Bournemouth Everton Away +1.5 ✓

Chelsea

W2 D1 L2
  1. ✓ 4–3
  2. ✓ 1–2
  3. ✕ 2–2
  4. ✕ 0–3
  5. ✓ 5–1

Our calls: 3 of 5 came in

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  1. W 5–1 v Bournemouth Either team to win ✓
  2. L 0–3 at Brentford Chelsea Away +1.5 ✕
  3. D 2–2 v Hull City Chelsea win ✕
  4. L 1–2 at Arsenal Arsenal win ✓
  5. W 4–3 v Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion Away +1.5 ✓

Last meetings

Everton wins 1 Draws 1 Chelsea wins 3
  1. 21 Mar 2026 Everton 3–0 Chelsea
  2. 13 Dec 2025 Chelsea 2–0 Everton
  3. 26 Apr 2025 Chelsea 1–0 Everton
  4. 22 Dec 2024 Everton 0–0 Chelsea
  5. 15 Apr 2024 Chelsea 6–0 Everton

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.