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Match prediction · Premier League

Leeds United vs Manchester United

Sun 18 Oct · 14:00 UK time · Elland Road

Our call Handicap | Fulltime
Leeds United Home +1.5

For this to come in, Leeds United must not lose by 2 or more goals.

Model confidence 80%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Leeds United

W1 D3 L1
  1. ✓ 1–1
  2. ✕ 1–1
  3. ✓ 4–1
  4. ✓ 0–0
  5. ✓ 1–2

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. L 1–2 at Arsenal Arsenal win ✓
  2. D 0–0 v Crystal Palace Crystal Palace Away +1.5 ✓
  3. W 4–1 v Newcastle United Leeds United Home +1.5 ✓
  4. D 1–1 at Brighton & Hove Albion Either team to win ✕
  5. D 1–1 v Brentford Brentford Away +1.5 ✓

Manchester United

W1 D3 L1
  1. ✓ 5–2
  2. ✓ 2–2
  3. ✓ 0–1
  4. ✓ 1–1
  5. ✕ 1–1

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. D 1–1 v Tottenham Hotspur Either team to win ✕
  2. D 1–1 at Fulham Fulham Home +1.5 ✓
  3. L 0–1 v Manchester City Either team to win ✓
  4. D 2–2 at Everton Everton Home +1.5 ✓
  5. W 5–2 v Ipswich Town Manchester United win ✓

Last meetings

Leeds United wins 1 Draws 2 Manchester United wins 2
  1. 13 Apr 2026 Manchester United 1–2 Leeds United
  2. 4 Jan 2026 Leeds United 1–1 Manchester United
  3. 12 Feb 2023 Leeds United 0–2 Manchester United
  4. 8 Feb 2023 Manchester United 2–2 Leeds United
  5. 20 Feb 2022 Leeds United 2–4 Manchester United

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.