BabaVanga
Build a parlay
Match prediction · Premier League

Arsenal vs Leeds United

Sat 10 Oct · 12:30 UK time · Emirates Stadium

Our call
Arsenal win
Model confidence 69%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Arsenal

W4 D0 L1
  1. ✓ 3–0
  2. ✓ 1–0
  3. ✓ 2–1
  4. ✓ 2–0
  5. ✕ 0–3

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. L 0–3 at Brighton & Hove Albion Arsenal or draw ✕
  2. W 2–0 at Sunderland Arsenal win ✓
  3. W 2–1 v Chelsea Arsenal win ✓
  4. W 1–0 at Aston Villa Arsenal or draw ✓
  5. W 3–0 v Coventry City Arsenal win ✓

Leeds United

W2 D3 L0
  1. ✓ 1–0
  2. ✓ 1–1
  3. ✕ 1–1
  4. ✓ 4–1
  5. ✓ 0–0

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. D 0–0 v Crystal Palace Crystal Palace Away +1.5 ✓
  2. W 4–1 v Newcastle United Leeds United Home +1.5 ✓
  3. D 1–1 at Brighton & Hove Albion Either team to win ✕
  4. D 1–1 v Brentford Brentford Away +1.5 ✓
  5. W 1–0 at Nottingham Forest Leeds United Away +1.5 ✓

Last meetings

Arsenal wins 5 Draws 0 Leeds United wins 0
  1. 31 Jan 2026 Leeds United 0–4 Arsenal
  2. 23 Aug 2025 Arsenal 5–0 Leeds United
  3. 1 Apr 2023 Arsenal 4–1 Leeds United
  4. 16 Oct 2022 Leeds United 0–1 Arsenal
  5. 8 May 2022 Arsenal 2–1 Leeds United

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.