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Match prediction · League One

MK Dons vs Burton Albion

Sat 14 Nov · 15:00 UK time · Stadium MK

Our call Handicap | Fulltime
Burton Albion Away +1.5

For this to come in, Burton Albion must not lose by 2 or more goals.

Model confidence 76%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

MK Dons

W4 D0 L1
  1. ✓ 2–1
  2. ✕ 0–2
  3. ✓ 1–0
  4. ✕ 4–1
  5. ✕ 6–1

Our calls: 2 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. W 6–1 v Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers Away +1.5 ✕
  2. W 4–1 v Bromley Bromley Away +1.5 ✕
  3. W 1–0 at Stevenage MK Dons Away +1.5 ✓
  4. L 0–2 at Blackpool MK Dons Away +1.5 ✕
  5. W 2–1 v Luton Town MK Dons Home +1.5 ✓

Burton Albion

W1 D2 L2
  1. ✓ 0–1
  2. ✕ 2–2
  3. ✓ 0–0
  4. ✓ 2–1
  5. ✓ 0–2

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. L 0–2 at Wycombe Wanderers Wycombe Wanderers win ✓
  2. W 2–1 v Leyton Orient Burton Albion Home +1.5 ✓
  3. D 0–0 v Bradford City Burton Albion Home +1.5 ✓
  4. D 2–2 at Peterborough United Either team to win ✕
  5. L 0–1 at Doncaster Rovers Burton Albion Away +1.5 ✓

Last meetings

MK Dons wins 3 Draws 2 Burton Albion wins 0
  1. 7 May 2023 Burton Albion 0–0 MK Dons
  2. 3 Dec 2022 MK Dons 1–1 Burton Albion
  3. 25 Jan 2022 Burton Albion 0–1 MK Dons
  4. 20 Nov 2021 MK Dons 1–0 Burton Albion
  5. 20 Mar 2021 Burton Albion 1–2 MK Dons

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.