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Match prediction · League Two

Northampton Town vs Colchester United

Sat 24 Oct · 12:30 UK time

Our call Handicap | Fulltime
Colchester United Away +1.5

For this to come in, Colchester United must not lose by 2 or more goals.

Model confidence 84%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Northampton Town

W1 D1 L3
  1. ✓ 0–2
  2. ✓ 0–1
  3. ✕ 1–1
  4. ✕ 2–0
  5. ✓ 0–1

Our calls: 3 of 5 came in

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  1. L 0–1 v Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers Away +1.5 ✓
  2. W 2–0 at Grimsby Town Grimsby Town or draw ✕
  3. D 1–1 at York City York City win ✕
  4. L 0–1 v Rotherham United Rotherham United Away +1.5 ✓
  5. L 0–2 at Shrewsbury Town Shrewsbury Town Home +1.5 ✓

Colchester United

W0 D4 L1
  1. ✓ 1–1
  2. ✓ 2–2
  3. ✓ 0–1
  4. ✓ 0–0
  5. ✓ 1–1

Our calls: 5 of 5 came in

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  1. D 1–1 at Chesterfield Colchester United Away +1.5 ✓
  2. D 0–0 v Exeter City Exeter City Away +1.5 ✓
  3. L 0–1 at Newport County Newport County Home +1.5 ✓
  4. D 2–2 at Shrewsbury Town Shrewsbury Town Home +1.5 ✓
  5. D 1–1 v Cheltenham Town Colchester United or draw ✓

Last meetings

Northampton Town wins 4 Draws 0 Colchester United wins 1
  1. 25 Feb 2023 Colchester United 0–1 Northampton Town
  2. 30 Jul 2022 Northampton Town 3–2 Colchester United
  3. 19 Feb 2022 Northampton Town 3–0 Colchester United
  4. 14 Aug 2021 Colchester United 0–1 Northampton Town
  5. 24 Aug 2019 Colchester United 1–0 Northampton Town

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.