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Match prediction · Championship

Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers

Fri 16 Oct · 20:00 UK time · Turf Moor

Our call Handicap | Fulltime
Wolverhampton Wanderers Away +1.5

For this to come in, Wolverhampton Wanderers must not lose by 2 or more goals.

Model confidence 81%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Burnley

W1 D3 L1
  1. ✓ 1–1
  2. ✓ 1–3
  3. ✕ 1–1
  4. ✕ 4–0
  5. ✕ 2–2

Our calls: 2 of 5 came in

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  1. D 2–2 v Charlton Athletic Burnley win ✕
  2. W 4–0 at Watford Watford Home +1.5 ✕
  3. D 1–1 v Derby County Burnley win ✕
  4. L 1–3 at Swansea City Swansea City Home +1.5 ✓
  5. D 1–1 at Wrexham Wrexham Home +1.5 ✓

Wolverhampton Wanderers

W2 D1 L2
  1. ✓ 2–2
  2. ✓ 1–0
  3. ✓ 1–0
  4. ✓ 0–1
  5. ✕ 1–3

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

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  1. L 1–3 v Bolton Wanderers Wolverhampton Wanderers win ✕
  2. L 0–1 at Middlesbrough Wolverhampton Wanderers Away +1.5 ✓
  3. W 1–0 v West Bromwich Albion Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw ✓
  4. W 1–0 at Sheffield United Sheffield United Home +1.5 ✓
  5. D 2–2 at Birmingham City Birmingham City Home +1.5 ✓

Last meetings

Burnley wins 2 Draws 2 Wolverhampton Wanderers wins 1
  1. 24 May 2026 Burnley 1–1 Wolverhampton Wanderers
  2. 26 Oct 2025 Wolverhampton Wanderers 2–3 Burnley
  3. 2 Apr 2024 Burnley 1–1 Wolverhampton Wanderers
  4. 5 Dec 2023 Wolverhampton Wanderers 1–0 Burnley
  5. 24 Apr 2022 Burnley 1–0 Wolverhampton Wanderers

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.