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Match prediction · Championship

Watford vs Burnley

Sat 10 Oct · 15:00 UK time · Vicarage Road

Our call Handicap | Fulltime
Watford Home +1.5

For this to come in, Watford must not lose by 2 or more goals.

Model confidence 76%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Watford

W1 D0 L4
  1. ✕ 0–2
  2. ✓ 0–1
  3. ✓ 2–1
  4. ✓ 1–2
  5. ✓ 0–1

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. L 0–1 at Bristol City Watford Away +1.5 ✓
  2. L 1–2 v Stoke City Stoke City Away +1.5 ✓
  3. W 2–1 v Preston North End Preston North End Away +1.5 ✓
  4. L 0–1 at West Bromwich Albion Watford Away +1.5 ✓
  5. L 0–2 at Swansea City Watford Away +1.5 ✕

Burnley

W0 D3 L2
  1. ✓ 1–1
  2. ✕ 1–2
  3. ✓ 1–1
  4. ✓ 1–3
  5. ✕ 1–1

Our calls: 3 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. D 1–1 v Derby County Burnley win ✕
  2. L 1–3 at Swansea City Swansea City Home +1.5 ✓
  3. D 1–1 at Wrexham Wrexham Home +1.5 ✓
  4. L 1–2 v Bristol City Burnley win ✕
  5. D 1–1 v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough Away +1.5 ✓

Last meetings

Watford wins 1 Draws 1 Burnley wins 3
  1. 18 Apr 2025 Watford 1–2 Burnley
  2. 21 Dec 2024 Burnley 2–1 Watford
  3. 14 Feb 2023 Burnley 1–1 Watford
  4. 12 Aug 2022 Watford 1–0 Burnley
  5. 30 Apr 2022 Watford 1–2 Burnley

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.