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Match prediction · League Two

Gillingham vs Port Vale

Tue 20 Oct · 20:00 UK time · Priestfield Stadium

Our call Handicap | Fulltime
Gillingham Home +1.5

For this to come in, Gillingham must not lose by 2 or more goals.

Model confidence 85%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Gillingham

W2 D1 L2
  1. ✕ 3–0
  2. ✓ 0–3
  3. ✓ 0–0
  4. ✕ 4–1
  5. ✕ 1–3

Our calls: 2 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. L 1–3 at Accrington Stanley Gillingham Away +1.5 ✕
  2. W 4–1 at Rotherham United Rotherham United or draw ✕
  3. D 0–0 v Newport County Newport County Away +1.5 ✓
  4. L 0–3 at York City York City win ✓
  5. W 3–0 v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers Away +1.5 ✕

Port Vale

W3 D0 L2
  1. ✓ 0–1
  2. ✓ 1–0
  3. ✕ 0–2
  4. ✓ 1–0
  5. ✓ 1–0

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. W 1–0 v Chesterfield Chesterfield Away +1.5 ✓
  2. W 1–0 v Grimsby Town Grimsby Town Away +1.5 ✓
  3. L 0–2 at Walsall Port Vale Away +1.5 ✕
  4. W 1–0 v Exeter City Exeter City Away +1.5 ✓
  5. L 0–1 at Salford City Port Vale Away +1.5 ✓

Last meetings

Gillingham wins 2 Draws 1 Port Vale wins 2
  1. 3 May 2025 Port Vale 0–1 Gillingham
  2. 9 Nov 2024 Gillingham 1–0 Port Vale
  3. 11 Feb 2017 Gillingham 1–1 Port Vale
  4. 17 Sep 2016 Port Vale 2–1 Gillingham
  5. 16 Apr 2016 Gillingham 0–2 Port Vale

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.