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Match prediction · League Two

Port Vale vs Grimsby Town

Sat 10 Oct · 15:00 UK time · Vale Park

Our call Handicap | Fulltime
Grimsby Town Away +1.5

For this to come in, Grimsby Town must not lose by 2 or more goals.

Model confidence 84%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Port Vale

W1 D1 L3
  1. ✓ 0–0
  2. ✕ 1–3
  3. ✓ 0–1
  4. ✓ 1–0
  5. ✕ 0–2

Our calls: 3 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. L 0–2 at Walsall Port Vale Away +1.5 ✕
  2. W 1–0 v Exeter City Exeter City Away +1.5 ✓
  3. L 0–1 at Salford City Port Vale Away +1.5 ✓
  4. L 1–3 at Swindon Town Port Vale Away +1.5 ✕
  5. D 0–0 v Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra Away +1.5 ✓

Grimsby Town

W2 D1 L2
  1. ✓ 2–2
  2. ✓ 2–0
  3. ✓ 2–0
  4. ✓ 1–2
  5. ✕ 1–2

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. L 1–2 v Shrewsbury Town Grimsby Town win ✕
  2. L 1–2 at Newport County Newport County Home +1.5 ✓
  3. W 2–0 v Crawley Town Grimsby Town or draw ✓
  4. W 2–0 v Bristol Rovers Grimsby Town or draw ✓
  5. D 2–2 at Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town Home +1.5 ✓

Last meetings

Port Vale wins 1 Draws 1 Grimsby Town wins 3
  1. 21 Apr 2025 Port Vale 2–2 Grimsby Town
  2. 29 Dec 2024 Grimsby Town 3–0 Port Vale
  3. 1 May 2021 Grimsby Town 1–0 Port Vale
  4. 9 Jan 2021 Port Vale 3–0 Grimsby Town
  5. 24 Aug 2019 Grimsby Town 5–2 Port Vale

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.