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Match prediction · League Two

Port Vale vs Chesterfield

Sat 17 Oct · 15:00 UK time · Vale Park

Our call Handicap | Fulltime
Chesterfield Away +1.5

For this to come in, Chesterfield must not lose by 2 or more goals.

Model confidence 84%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Port Vale

W2 D0 L3
  1. ✕ 1–3
  2. ✓ 0–1
  3. ✓ 1–0
  4. ✕ 0–2
  5. ✓ 1–0

Our calls: 3 of 5 came in

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  1. W 1–0 v Grimsby Town Grimsby Town Away +1.5 ✓
  2. L 0–2 at Walsall Port Vale Away +1.5 ✕
  3. W 1–0 v Exeter City Exeter City Away +1.5 ✓
  4. L 0–1 at Salford City Port Vale Away +1.5 ✓
  5. L 1–3 at Swindon Town Port Vale Away +1.5 ✕

Chesterfield

W3 D1 L1
  1. ✓ 2–1
  2. ✓ 2–0
  3. ✓ 1–2
  4. ✓ 4–2
  5. ✓ 2–2

Our calls: 5 of 5 came in

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  1. D 2–2 at Crawley Town Crawley Town Home +1.5 ✓
  2. W 4–2 v Tranmere Rovers Chesterfield win ✓
  3. L 1–2 at Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town Home +1.5 ✓
  4. W 2–0 v York City Chesterfield Home +1.5 ✓
  5. W 2–1 at Oldham Athletic Chesterfield Away +1.5 ✓

Last meetings

Port Vale wins 2 Draws 1 Chesterfield wins 2
  1. 25 Jan 2025 Chesterfield 1–1 Port Vale
  2. 14 Sep 2024 Port Vale 1–0 Chesterfield
  3. 30 Mar 2018 Port Vale 2–1 Chesterfield
  4. 19 Aug 2017 Chesterfield 2–0 Port Vale
  5. 8 Apr 2017 Chesterfield 1–0 Port Vale

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.