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Match prediction · League One

Luton Town vs Barnsley

Tue 20 Oct · 19:45 UK time · Kenilworth Road

Our call
Luton Town win
Model confidence 56%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Luton Town

W1 D1 L3
  1. ✓ 1–1
  2. ✓ 1–2
  3. ✕ 0–1
  4. ✓ 4–1
  5. ✓ 1–2

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. L 1–2 at MK Dons MK Dons Home +1.5 ✓
  2. W 4–1 at Wycombe Wanderers Luton Town Away +1.5 ✓
  3. L 0–1 v Bradford City Luton Town or draw ✕
  4. L 1–2 at Stevenage Stevenage Home +1.5 ✓
  5. D 1–1 v Leyton Orient Luton Town or draw ✓

Barnsley

W0 D1 L4
  1. ✓ 1–5
  2. ✓ 0–3
  3. ✕ 1–1
  4. ✓ 1–3
  5. ✓ 1–2

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. L 1–2 v Cambridge United Cambridge United Away +1.5 ✓
  2. L 1–3 at Stockport County Stockport County win ✓
  3. D 1–1 v Leicester City Either team to win ✕
  4. L 0–3 at Plymouth Argyle Either team to win ✓
  5. L 1–5 v Stevenage Stevenage Away +1.5 ✓

Last meetings

Luton Town wins 3 Draws 0 Barnsley wins 2
  1. 25 Apr 2026 Luton Town 2–1 Barnsley
  2. 22 Nov 2025 Barnsley 5–0 Luton Town
  3. 8 Feb 2022 Luton Town 2–1 Barnsley
  4. 17 Aug 2021 Barnsley 0–1 Luton Town
  5. 5 Apr 2021 Luton Town 1–2 Barnsley

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.