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Match prediction · Premier League

Bournemouth vs Sunderland

Sun 18 Oct · 14:00 UK time · Vitality Stadium

Our call
Bournemouth win
Model confidence 58%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Bournemouth

W0 D3 L2
  1. ✓ 1–1
  2. ✕ 2–2
  3. ✓ 2–2
  4. ✓ 0–1
  5. ✓ 1–5

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. L 1–5 at Chelsea Either team to win ✓
  2. L 0–1 v Liverpool Either team to win ✓
  3. D 2–2 v Brentford Brentford Away +1.5 ✓
  4. D 2–2 at Newcastle United Either team to win ✕
  5. D 1–1 v Everton Everton Away +1.5 ✓

Sunderland

W1 D1 L3
  1. ✓ 1–0
  2. ✕ 1–1
  3. ✓ 0–2
  4. ✓ 3–5
  5. ✓ 0–2

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. L 0–2 v Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion or draw ✓
  2. L 3–5 at Manchester City Manchester City win ✓
  3. L 0–2 v Arsenal Arsenal win ✓
  4. D 1–1 at Brentford Brentford win ✕
  5. W 1–0 v Fulham Sunderland Home +1.5 ✓

Last meetings

Bournemouth wins 1 Draws 2 Sunderland wins 2
  1. 28 Feb 2026 Bournemouth 1–1 Sunderland
  2. 29 Nov 2025 Sunderland 3–2 Bournemouth
  3. 29 Apr 2017 Sunderland 0–1 Bournemouth
  4. 5 Nov 2016 Bournemouth 1–2 Sunderland
  5. 23 Jan 2016 Sunderland 1–1 Bournemouth

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.