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Match prediction · League One

MK Dons vs Reading

Sat 10 Oct · 15:00 UK time · Stadium MK

Our call Handicap | Fulltime
Reading Away +1.5

For this to come in, Reading must not lose by 2 or more goals.

Model confidence 81%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

MK Dons

W0 D4 L1
  1. ✕ 0–0
  2. ✕ 1–3
  3. ✓ 3–3
  4. ✓ 1–1
  5. ✓ 0–0

Our calls: 3 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. D 0–0 at AFC Wimbledon MK Dons Away +1.5 ✓
  2. D 1–1 v Peterborough United Peterborough United Away +1.5 ✓
  3. D 3–3 at Wycombe Wanderers Wycombe Wanderers or draw ✓
  4. L 1–3 at Wigan Athletic MK Dons Away +1.5 ✕
  5. D 0–0 v Leicester City Leicester City win ✕

Reading

W2 D2 L1
  1. ✕ 3–1
  2. ✓ 1–2
  3. ✓ 2–0
  4. ✕ 2–2
  5. ✓ 1–1

Our calls: 3 of 5 came in

Show matchesHide matches
  1. D 1–1 v Bradford City Bradford City Away +1.5 ✓
  2. D 2–2 at Wycombe Wanderers Either team to win ✕
  3. W 2–0 v Notts County Either team to win ✓
  4. L 1–2 at Cambridge United Reading Away +1.5 ✓
  5. W 3–1 v Blackpool Blackpool Away +1.5 ✕

Last meetings

MK Dons wins 1 Draws 1 Reading wins 0
  1. 16 Jan 2016 MK Dons 1–0 Reading
  2. 22 Aug 2015 Reading 0–0 MK Dons

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.