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Match prediction · League One

Plymouth Argyle vs AFC Wimbledon

Sat 10 Oct · 12:30 UK time · Home Park

Our call
Plymouth Argyle win
Model confidence 58%

Match analysis

Written when the call was published: the evidence for it, the evidence against it, and what could undo it.

Recent form

Each side's last five league games this season, oldest to latest, with our call on each.

Plymouth Argyle

W4 D0 L1
  1. ✓ 3–2
  2. ✓ 3–0
  3. ✓ 4–2
  4. ✕ 0–1
  5. ✕ 2–0

Our calls: 3 of 5 came in

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  1. W 2–0 at Leyton Orient Leyton Orient Home +1.5 ✕
  2. L 0–1 v Burton Albion Plymouth Argyle win ✕
  3. W 4–2 at Blackpool Plymouth Argyle Away +1.5 ✓
  4. W 3–0 v Barnsley Either team to win ✓
  5. W 3–2 at Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers Home +1.5 ✓

AFC Wimbledon

W2 D2 L1
  1. ✕ 1–4
  2. ✓ 2–0
  3. ✓ 1–0
  4. ✓ 0–0
  5. ✓ 1–1

Our calls: 4 of 5 came in

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  1. D 1–1 at Cambridge United AFC Wimbledon Away +1.5 ✓
  2. D 0–0 v MK Dons MK Dons Away +1.5 ✓
  3. W 1–0 v Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers Away +1.5 ✓
  4. W 2–0 at Bromley AFC Wimbledon Away +1.5 ✓
  5. L 1–4 at Burton Albion AFC Wimbledon Away +1.5 ✕

Last meetings

Plymouth Argyle wins 4 Draws 0 AFC Wimbledon wins 1
  1. 18 Apr 2026 AFC Wimbledon 1–3 Plymouth Argyle
  2. 18 Oct 2025 Plymouth Argyle 1–2 AFC Wimbledon
  3. 8 Mar 2022 Plymouth Argyle 2–0 AFC Wimbledon
  4. 18 Sep 2021 AFC Wimbledon 0–1 Plymouth Argyle
  5. 2 Apr 2021 Plymouth Argyle 1–0 AFC Wimbledon

Confidence is the probability the model gave the call when it was published. It is uncalibrated and it is not a price. Strike rate, the share of graded calls that came in, is the whole claim: today's calls and the record.